Revised 11/12/01
for further info contact Geograph99@aol.comCurrently Mapped Incidents from October/November 2001
The map below is in jpg format and may be downloaded using the right mouse button and the “Save Image As“ option. Because it is being reduced in size in order to display on the current web page, the clarity of the downloaded file will be significantly better than what you see. You may also view and download the same map in GIF format (with improved image clarity) by clicking here.
The red dots indicate sites associated with the incident set of 10/15/2001. This includes 269 distinct mapped locations. Actual incident levels were higher since some sites report multiple occurrences. The magenta squares illustrate a preliminary set of sites impacted by the FedEx threats of 11/08/2001. 85 of the estimated 200+ victims have so far been mapped from this set. The smaller green dots indicate the distribution of all potential victims. Locations are calculated using a generalization method to enhance visual output and protect victim privacy. As a result there often are multiple distinct sites associated with each illustrated location. States shaded in yellow indicate prelimary reports of occurrences associated with the November 2001 FedEx mailings which reportedly may also extend into the western United States.
Interesting trends and characteristics:
Except for Saint Louis, MO, virtually no incidents in the October data set occur west of the Mississippi River (NOTE: there is some question over the accuracy of the reported St. Louis incident that is still under investigation). Preliminary analysis of the November incidents shows a similar geographic bias in this and other characteristics, however mapping is incomplete and final judgement therefore should be withheld pending further data analysis.
There are virtually no October incidents in New England. Even the single event recorded in New York appears to be a coincidental anomaly rather than part of the main set of mailings.
In all states but one, incidents appear to predominate near major urban centers, significant highway junctions, and along major interstate road systems. Potential victims not meeting that profile were largely immune. This raises the question of exactly how the perpetrator(s) decided who to target and what gave rise to their perceptions. For instance, are they part of a group which travels the region? Or is it a more mundane function of population densities or some similar aspect?
Pennsylvania stands out from the normal trend discussed above. It has a higher proportion of sites and a near total saturation of potential victims being actualized. This characteristic is worth noting in view of the more recent FedEx-based threats received in November 2001 which also show a potential Pennsylvania linkage.
Incidents in the four Great Lakes States share characteristics not found elsewhere indicating a possible distinct origin relative to sites in other areas.
It’s important to note that geographic characteristics do not in and of themselves prove very much and therefore should not be overstressed. However, such characteristics can sometimes prove to be of value in terms of analyzing perceptual biases or other characteristics of the perpetrators of such acts as well as defining risk areas, possible future targets, and so forth.
Beyond the issue noted above regarding Pennsylvania, it’s interesting to note that the new threats received during November seem to be targeted toward filling in some of the areas not covered in the October set. Together with other reported similarities in the materials sent, this tends to indicate a continuing activity by a common perpetrator or group of perpetrators. It may also show continuation of a predefined plan. Interestingly there has also been a relatively long history of activity in the Pennsylvania area by various racist and neo-nazi groups. These activities if anything have continued and may even have increased in the past year. However, at the time of this analysis no data indicates a direct connection. Equally notable is the long history of intense and often extreme anti-abortion activity in the region. Combined with recent sitings of Clayton Waagner in the area this may be of more significance.
Finally, the use of stolen account information in the November threat set constitutes actually two sets of victims: the targets of the mailings and the parties whose account data was unlawfully used. In terms of the latter, the potential intended economic impact is vaguely similar to that intended in past “common law” filings also intended to inflict economic stress on victims. Further, the potential for impacted communication between the primary and secondary victims, as also the case with the October mailings, is perhaps even an intended goal. Finally it must not be forgotten that beyond that, the social cost of tracking down and analyzing each threat produces another set of victims, the taxpayers and their public servants.
Given all the above factors, it not only is not wholly clear who the perpetrators are, but as in the case of the Spokane Valley bank robberies some years ago when clinics were also attacked, it’s not even necessarily a foregone conclusion over who the intended victims truly are. As such, these attacks warrant a very aggressive level of investigation and prosecution and should not lightly be discarded as mere “hoaxes” until the perpetrators are identified and apprehended.