"Gambler's Ruin" Calculator for Video Poker

In theory, if you are playing a game where the odds are in your favor, and you play long enough, eventually you will come out a winner. In practice, though, you have a finite stake, and you are going to quit if you run out of money. Thus you could very possibly walk away a loser from a game that is actually in your favor. This phenomenon goes by the evocative name of gambler's ruin.

In video poker, gambler's ruin is especially relevant because about 2% of your total payout (it varies from game to game) is due to the royal flush jackpot, which occurs on average once every 40,000 hands or so. Thus, even if the machine has a fraction of a per cent bias in your favor when you play them optimally (and some do, see my strategy article), the game will still be in the casino's favor as long as you do not hit a royal flush. And, of course, if you do hit a royal flush, it is really hard to walk away a loser.

IF YOU CAN READ THIS, YOU DO NOT HAVE A JAVA-ENABLED BROWSER. YOU MUST HAVE JAVA IN ORDER TO USE THE CALCULATOR. 

The calculator tells you what your probability is of being in each winnings range (including "retired" and "busted"), for the number of hands shown. You enter your initial stake, and at what point you will be willing to walk away a winner. (I hope this is not a completely foreign concept for you.) You can run it for any number of hands.

The estimated elapsed time in the calculator is based on the rule of thumb that you play about 10 hands a minute; 600 hands an hour. This is fast, but not blindingly fast. You may play slower or faster and you should adjust the estimate accordingly. The calculator assumes you are playing 5 quarters with every hand.

The percentage returns used by the calculator assume you play the optimal strategy. The returns are:
 

Machine Name Return
Jacks-or-better 99.5% 
Jacks-or-better (4700 royal) 99.9% 
Jacks-or-better (8/5) 97.3% 
Tens-or-better 99.5% 
Bonus Poker 99.3% 
Double Bonus 100.2% 
Deuces wild 100.8% 
Joker wild 100.6% 
Joker wild (4700 royal) 101.0% 
Five wild cards 99.0% 


Last updated May 2, 2001.
Return to Jeff Lotspiech's Video Poker Page.