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Econometric Business Cycle Research (EBCR)

Walter K Waymeyer Econometric Business Cycle Research. waltkw@aol.com

Outline of approach:

The economy is representable as an interactive system of integral equations involving the key variables and their derivatives. The key to past economic behavior is embodied in the measured economic time series.

There is an underlying trending economy, and a superimposed behavioral economy deviating from the trend. The business cycle is embodied in the deviations from trend with period lengths from 12 to 2 years per cycle.

To study the "business cycle", or the dynamic interaction of economic variables, it is essential to extract from economic time series with minimum distortion, in both timing and amplitude, the information in the 2 to 12 year per cycle range.

The much used H-P filter does not make this undistorted separation.

Hence this bandpass smoother/filter.

For the application of bandpass in Econometric Business Cycle Research see ecodyn2, Applying continuous integral equation techniques of time and frequency domain analysis to the modeling and control of macroeconomic systems, such as national and international economies.